In August 2026, the Gillespie County median sale price was down 15.0% from a year earlier, at $425,000. The same report, from the same MLS, showed the Fredericksburg local market area's median at $773,500, up 105.8%. One month's data gave one figure that looked like a slump and another that looked like a boom.
Neither headline describes what a particular house is worth. Both come from the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M and the Central Hill Country Board of REALTORS. Both are accurate. They point in opposite directions because a median in a small market records which homes sold that month. Here, a few dozen closings set it. In a city-level slice, it can be ten. The numbers that hold steady from one month to the next show something different: plenty of homes on the market, long listing periods, and a consistent gap between the original asking price and the final sale price.
Where the county's 15% drop came from
Split the county figure into existing homes and new construction and the "drop" mostly goes away.
In August 2026, Gillespie County recorded 37 residential closings. Eleven were new construction, with a median of $290,700 and $170 per square foot. The other 26 were existing homes, with a median of $595,000, down only 3.6% from August 2025.
So almost three in ten closings that month were lower-priced new builds. When that many sales come from the bottom of the price range, the middle value of the whole set slides down even if no individual home lost value. Price per square foot shows the same thing. The county's all-residential figure rose 2.0% to $355 while the median fell 15%. Existing-home price per square foot was $435 in August, up 14.4%.
The 14.4% figure needs the same caution as the median. Twenty-six sales is a small sample, and one large custom home or one small cottage can move it. The year-to-date numbers are steadier. Through August 2026, the county's existing-home median was $565,000, up 4.6%, and existing-home price per square foot was $358, up 2.9%. That looks like a market rising slowly, which is very different from either a 15% drop or a 14% jump.
The new homes are mostly outside town
Of those 11 new-construction closings, only one fell inside the Fredericksburg local market area. It sold for $339,999. The report defines that area as a Census Place Group, area code 335. The other ten were elsewhere in the county.
That is why the two headlines moved apart. The county number took in a cluster of entry-priced new homes. The Fredericksburg number barely included any, so it reflected mostly existing homes, which sold at higher prices in August.
To see what entry-priced new construction looks like in the area right now, Lennar's Friendship Oaks community, at 100 Aidan Trail in Fredericksburg, currently lists its Watermill Collection from $269,999 and its Coastline Collection from $303,699. Individual plans run from $281,999 to $386,699, on homesites along Gabriels Run and Joshua Cove. Those are current builder prices, not records of what closed in August, and the builder's page doesn't say whether the community sits inside city limits. It does show that a price band well below the county's existing-home median now exists. Whenever a batch of those homes closes in the same month, the county median will drop.
Ten sales cannot carry a trend
The Fredericksburg local market area has the opposite problem. Its sample is tiny.
| Fredericksburg local market area | July 2026 | August 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Closed residential sales | 17 | 10 |
| Median sale price | $420,000 | $773,500 |
| Price per square foot | $362 | $347 |
| Months of inventory | 11.6 | 12.9 |
| Close-to-original-list price | 92.7% | 92.0% |
From July to August, the median rose by more than $350,000 while price per square foot went down. In July the middle of 17 sales was a $420,000 home. In August the middle of 10 sales was a $773,500 home. The report doesn't give the size or location of either one, but when the median and the per-foot price move in opposite directions, the likeliest cause is a different set of homes closing, not homes gaining value. With a sample that small, the median changes when the mix of homes changes.
Inventory and the sale-to-list ratio barely moved between the two months. Supply stayed near a year's worth of listings, and sellers closed at about 92% of their original asking price both times.
The year-to-date figure again gives the more reliable picture. Through August 2026, the Fredericksburg local market area recorded 132 residential sales at a median of $485,550, up 15.4% from the same period in 2025. For existing homes alone, the year-to-date median was $505,000, up 9.0%, while price per square foot was $321, down 0.5%. A rising median with flat price per square foot is consistent with the same explanation. It suggests the mix of homes sold this year has shifted while the price paid per foot has held about level, though the report doesn't break out home sizes to confirm it.
What stayed put while the medians swung
Some numbers barely changed through July and August, and they describe the market a buyer is actually negotiating in.
- Supply. Gillespie County had 10.8 months of inventory in July 2026 and 10.9 months in August, with 456 active listings at the end of August. Months of inventory estimates how long current listings would take to sell at the recent pace. Existing homes in the county were at 11.6 months in August.
- Time on market. Homes that closed in August 2026 in the county averaged 118 days on market, and existing homes averaged 123. The year-to-date average was 117 days, so August was a normal month.
- The asking-to-closing gap. County sales closed at 90.2% of original list price in July 2026 and 89.8% in August. For existing homes in August the figure was 89.0%, and the year-to-date figure was 91.0%. New construction closed closer to its list price, at 91.2% in August.
The third measure matters most once a buyer starts making offers. The ratio compares the final price to the original asking price, not to the price after any reductions, so it captures price cuts made during a long listing as well as negotiation at the end. For example, an existing home first listed at $600,000 that closed at the August county ratio of 89.0% would have sold for about $534,000. The ratio is a market-wide average, not a prediction for any one property. Still, it has stayed around 89% to 92% at both the county and city level in both months, and it reflects long listing periods and room to negotiate.
Reading a Fredericksburg number before it reaches you
The September 2026 report isn't out yet. The Texas Real Estate Research Center releases figures for markets outside Houston on or near the 20th day after the month ends, so the September data should appear around October 20. August is the latest available month.
When that report or any later one comes out, a few questions will tell you whether a headline means anything:
- How many sales sit behind the median? In the August 2026 Fredericksburg local market area there were 10, so a few unusual sales could set the number.
- How many of those sales were new construction? In the county in August 2026 it was 11 of 37, enough to move the overall median.
- Did price per square foot move the same way as the median? In August 2026 the county's median fell 15% while its price per square foot rose 2%. When the two disagree, a change in the mix of homes sold is usually the reason.
- Is the year-to-date figure telling a calmer story? Through August 2026 it was, at both the county and city level.
- Are inventory and the close-to-original-list ratio still where they were? If those stay near 11 months and 90%, the negotiating conditions haven't changed, whatever happened to the median.
FAQ
Is Fredericksburg real estate getting cheaper?
The August 2026 data doesn't show that. The county's 15% median decline came largely from 11 new-construction closings with a median of $290,700, and the county's existing-home median through August was up 4.6% year to date. What has changed is the pace. Months of inventory near 11 and closing prices near 90% of original list describe a slow market, not a falling one.
Why do the county and city figures differ so much?
They cover different groups of sales. Gillespie County had 37 closings in August 2026. The Fredericksburg local market area had 10, and only one of those was new construction. Most of the lower-priced new homes closed outside the city's market area, so they lowered the county median and left the city's alone.
Which single number best describes the market right now?
No single number does. Read together, though, inventory, days on market, and the close-to-original-list ratio stayed close to the same levels in July and August 2026 while the medians swung. They are the most consistent picture this data gives of conditions in a negotiation.
At CC Herber Co., we read these monthly reports one sale at a time, comparing price per foot, condition, and location with the specific Fredericksburg homes our clients are weighing. If a headline median is shaping your offer or your list price, schedule a consultation and we'll go through the comparable sales behind it with you.
